If Latinos in the US were an independent country, they would represent the world’s fifth largest economy based on GDP. Larger than India, larger than the UK. Those are the top-level findings of a new study out this week looking at Latino economic output in the US.
The data reveal the critical role the Latino community plays in driving US economic growth and offer a counterpoint to right wing contentions over the role of immigrants here.
“Latino participation in the US economy is more active, it’s more intense,” said Matthew Fienup with the Center for Economic Research and Forecasting at California Lutheran University and a co-author of the study, the US Latino GDP Report.
Fienup presented the findings in a livestream Tuesday alongside co-author David Hayes-Bautista, who directs the Center for the Study of Latino Health and Culture at UCLA.
“Frankly, the vitality of the broader US economy depends on the activity and intensity of Latinos in the US,” noted Fienup, a message that runs counter to the narrative presented by Republican officials who continually seek to denigrate and demonize immigrant communities.
The Latino GDP in the US for 2022 came in at an eye popping $3.7 trillion, up from $2.8 trillion in 2019 and $1.6 trillion in 2010. The numbers are drawn from several federal agencies, including the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the US Census Bureau.
More impressive still, noted Fienup, is the 63% growth rate in the Latino GDP between the years 2010 and 2022, nearly three times faster than the growth rate for non-Latinos in the US and the third-fastest growth rate in the world.
Over that same period, the average annual growth of real U.S. Latino GDP was 4.2%, compared to only 1.7% for the broader U.S. economy
“At the heart of this story,” said Fienup, “is a story of human capital accumulation. Of Latinos bettering themselves and in doing so producing the economic growth that is spinning off benefits for the entire US economy.”
Indeed, looking just at Latino educational attainment, some 90% of US born Latinos graduate high school, while half go on to college. Many also grow up bi-lingual, meaning they are better able to communicate with a broader swath of the population.
This is the seventh annual US Latino GDP Report. The project was initiated by renowned demographer Hayes-Bautista, who in 2004 began seeking ways to provide robust data on economic output by US Latinos.
Perhaps at no other time were Latino economic contributions clearer than during the Covid-19 pandemic, when Latino output provided the essential backbone for an otherwise moribund economy.
Latino incomes surged 11.5% during the pandemic years, compared to just 1.2% for the non-Latino population.
“This hints at just how dramatic the role of Latinos was holding up the economy in the darkest days of the Covid 19 pandemic and the economic displacement that resulted,” Fienup noted. “Latinos are not just drivers of growth, but drivers of economic vitality that benefits all Americans.”
Still, the figures are in stark contrast with the heavy toll the pandemic took on the Latino community, where infection and mortality rates surpassed those of non-Hispanic whites.
According to Hayes-Bautista, Latino’s overrepresentation in the workforce during the pandemic meant they were more exposed to the virus, leading to the higher infection rates.
“They kept the country fed, they kept the population moving, housed, and cared for. Latinos kept at work and that is why they were more exposed,” he said. “They paid the price but kept this country together.”
But, he adds, the prevailing narrative surrounding the Latino community during the pandemic was one of dysfunction, whether it be poor economic decisions or poor lifestyle choices. These stereotypes helped fuel assumptions that Latinos’ disproportionate suffering was in part of their own making.
“People like to just look at what goes wrong with Latinos and other minority groups,” Hayes-Bautista quipped.
Yet none of these prior assumptions have any basis in fact, he continued. In fact, prior to the pandemic Latinos saw up to 30% lower rates of chronic illness like heart disease and cancer and enjoyed life spans that were 3 years longer than non-Hispanic whites.
Hayes-Bautista pointed out how many experts predicted the gains derived from what he called Latinos’ “healthy lifestyle advantages” would be wiped out as a result of the pandemic.
And while Latino life expectancy did fall in 2020 to just 6 months higher than non-Hispanic whites, those numbers have since rebounded. Latinos in 2022 enjoyed lifespans that were 2.5 years longer than non-Hispanic whites.
Latino labor force participation, meanwhile, remains robust, with two Latinos entering the workforce for every one that leaves. That compares to less than one worker for every non-Hispanic white who departs the workforce.
Much of this is driven by the surge in the US Latino population, which reached 64 million in 2022, up from 14.7 million in 1980. And while immigrant Latinos were primarily responsible for helping to build the “world’s fifth largest economy,” as Hayes-Bautista explains, referring to the Latino GDP, younger, US born Latinos are increasingly taking up the mantle.
“As we go into the future… there is every prospect that Latino GPD growth will help the US maintain its economic preeminence throughout the 21st Century,” he said. “The sky is the limit.”
