Political upheaval caused by post-election results in the United States — the largest per-capita emitter and the second-largest absolute emitter of greenhouse gases — has not only put the agenda of COP29 in limbo, but has also engulfed the world in uncertainty about the climate urgency.
World leaders have gathered in Baku, Azerbaijan for COP29, which will run from Nov. 11-22. A number of world leaders, who were prominent in recent global meetings like Summit of the Future, the BRICS meet and QUAD, are shunning COP29. Many of them now think that instead of dealing with climate crisis, they are better off dealing with their own limited crises amidst past self-serving and unfulfilled promises and pledges of financial assistance to developing countries.
COP28 was also known as the ‘first-ever Global Stocktake’ conference. Global stock-take was a distinct and necessary process agreed under the Paris Agreement to review and assess efforts of greenhouse gas mitigation by countries and the status of financial assistance made available by developed countries to developing countries. This exercise was critical for determining the emission reductions achieved globally, fixing accountability, and corrections needed for the pace and direction to fulfill the agreement’s goals.
COP28 Made History
COP28 indeed made history when the countries committed for the first time in 30 years of UN negotiations to ‘transition away from fossil fuels, coal, gas and oil, in a ‘just, orderly, and equitable manner.’
The very fact that such a decision came after the exercise of global-stock take and that too in a meeting in a country whose economy is mainly dependent on fossil fuels was pleasantly promising. It reinforced the hope that the world can come together and forge partnerships to address the climate crisis.
Secondly, countries agreed to accelerate action on tripling renewable energy capacity, doubling energy efficiency improvements, and phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies. All actions were aimed at limiting global warming to 1.5°C above the average global temperature during the pre-industrial years of 1850-1900.
Emissions Reduction Goals
COP28 took into consideration the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that specifically called for reductions of emissions of 43 pc by 2030 and 60 pc by 2035, relative to 2019 levels, with the aim of achieving net zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050.
The question now is: can the world move forward from ‘Unity in the UAE’ of COP28 to ‘Action in Azerbaijan’ in COP29? A tsunami of other questions will also be bursting on the coast of Caspian Sea and flooding into the negotiating rooms of COP in Baku.
Apart from transition away from fossil fuel, the world now needs ‘transition away’ from false pledges and empty promises. There is a dire need to accelerate implementation by dismantling the ineffective and non-consequential framework of negotiations that encompass ‘stock-taking and pledge-enhancing’ without a responsible follow-up.
‘Finance COP’
The time has come to move on the top of the agenda in COP29 to establish an ‘International Climate Court of Justice’ to punish and sanction the countries and companies that violate the agreement and do not meet the promises on financing and mitigative action. Punitive actions through international legal framework will trigger result-oriented partnerships, technological innovations and bring down the costs of clean energy much faster.
COP29 needs to be turned into a real “Finance-COP” if developed countries do not follow through on their binding financial promissory notes of pledged finance to developing countries. Over the last two decades, every developed nation has promised to finance and then reneged. It is time to put their promises on paper from which they can’t walk away or try to fudge the numbers.
Rich Countries Must Keep Their Promises
COP29 should not be the start of yet another set of financial commitments embedded in the decisions of UNFCCC. It should signal undeterred actions to end the era of fossil fuels, to leave no loopholes for delay or inaction. Rich country emitters must move first and fast-forward. They must fund the mitigation, adaptation and loss and damage in the developing countries, without diluting or shunning away from their commitments.
The US is the largest historical cumulative emitter, having released over 500 gigatons of CO2 since 1850, accounting for approximately 20 pc of the world’s total emissions. Far behind is China, which holds the second spot with an 11 pc share, trailed by Russia at 7 pc, Brazil at 5 pc, Indonesia at 4 pc and India at 3.4 pc. Meanwhile, major European nations with colonial histories, such as Germany and the UK, contribute 4 pc and 3 pc respectively to the global total, excluding emissions from their colonial territories.
Carbon Budgets
Science very clearly states that these historical emissions are responsible for the present level of global warming, as emissions remain in the atmosphere for more than 100 years. There comes the concept of a ‘Carbon Budget.’ As per the IPCC, ‘remaining carbon budget’ is defined as ‘the total net amount of CO2 that human activities can still release into the atmosphere while keeping global warming to a specified level, like 1.5°C or 2°C relative to pre-industrial temperatures.’
The carbon budget takes into consideration carbon emitted from year 1850, the approximate start of Industrial Revolution. So far the world has spent nearly 92.5 pc of its total available carbon budget.
Climate Finance
On the other side of the carbon budget is climate finance. COP28 concluded with yet another chain of financial pledges for developing countries for reducing emissions, as well as for mitigation and adaptation to climate change and for loss and damage caused by climate change. COP29 would certainly engage in the debate on the ever-widening gap between financial pledges that are made and that are met.
It would also assess the revised needs of developing countries. The Independent High Level expert group has now estimated that developing countries (China excluded), need an annual investment of USD 2.4 trillion each year until 2030 for a proper transition to clean energy, adaptation, resilience, loss and damage and the conservation and restoration of the ecosystem.
This financial assistance is an enabler for technological innovation and for skill-building to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. However, it must be provided with the strict conditions that drive the countries to meet the goals of the Paris climate agreement.
Maintain Progress
It would be interesting to see how COP29 wades through these agenda amidst political upheaval, regional wars and the general absence of world leaders.
Countries in COP28 in Dubai returned after making history. Countries attending COP29 in Baku would certainly return wondering the future of that history. The least that they can do is to ensure that the world does not regress from the little progress it has made.
Dr. Rajendra Shende is the former Director of the United Nations Environment Program. He was the coordinating lead author of IPCC which won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007. Dr. Shende is the founder of the Green Terre Foundation. This article is reprinted here with the author’s written permission.
