A new survey finds majorities in six swing states support a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants over and above mass deportation. The survey also finds large majorities support increased border security.
The findings offer a rare point of bi-partisan agreement on what is one of the most contentious issues shaping this election season.
Voters resonate with the arguments on both sides, explained Dr. Steven Kull with the Program for Public Consultation at the University of Maryland School of Public Policy, which conducted the survey. But “when they reason through… they come to this conclusion.”
The survey polled 3,616 residents across six battleground states – Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Georgia – in English and Spanish between Sept. 23 and Oct. 1, with a margin of error of ±3.2%.
Respondents were asked to evaluate arguments on a range of issues tied to immigration and the border, including increased border security, construction of a border wall, and the question of what to do with the more than 11 million undocumented immigrants currently in the country.
Survey questions were designed around past and current policy proposals put forward by both parties.
“The survey puts respondents in the shoes of a policy maker,” Kull said during an Oct. 10 Zoom press briefing announcing the results. “They have to evaluate the arguments … and then make a decision.”
On the question of undocumented immigrants, respondents were asked to weigh one of two options: Creating a new type of visa that would be available to those who have been living and paying taxes in the country for some years and have not committed a serious crime that would in time allow them to apply for citizenship, or undertake a program of mass deportation that would draw on local law enforcement, the National Guard and possibly the military at a cost of $100 billion or more.
The former option comes from the U.S. Citizenship Act of 2023 proposed by Congresswoman Linda Sanchez (D-CA 38th District), while the latter is drawn directly from the 2024 GOP Platform.
Across all six states, 58% of respondents favored a path to citizenship over just 26% who supported mass deportation. “Among every demographic group – including by race, ethnicity, gender, age, income and education – a majority prefers a path to citizenship, in the swing states as a whole and nationally,” the survey noted.
Support for a path to citizenship was lowest in Pennsylvania (55%), a key battleground state and one where Republicans were evenly divided on the question, and highest in Nevada (65%). Higher income earners were also more in favor of a pathway to citizenship (68%) compared to those earning less than $50,000 (55%), possibly reflecting concerns over job security among lower paid workers.
Experts warn that for agricultural states like California, Trump’s proposed mass deportation effort would be “disastrous,” causing massive disruption to communities and “spurring price hikes in supermarkets across the country” given the large share of farmworkers who are undocumented.
On border security, significant majorities from both parties – 74% for Republicans, and 71% for Democrats – supported increasing the number of border patrol agents from the current 20,000 to 22,000 along with increased funding for surveillance technology.
There is also robust bi-partisan support (74% nationally) for increasing the number of immigrant work visas while requiring that employers use E-Verify to ensure applicants have a legal right to work in the country. A majority also support hiring more immigration judges to ease the backlog of more than 1 million asylum cases currently pending.
Construction of a border wall fell more along traditional partisan lines, with 55% of respondents overall and fewer than half of Democrats in favor.
A recent bi-partisan border package that would have delivered some of these outcomes – including reduced border crossings and tighter requirements for asylum seekers – was torpedoed by Republicans earlier this year allegedly under pressure from Trump, who feared losing immigration as a campaign issue.
This is the ninth in a series of surveys looking at public opinion on a range of issues in swing states conducted by the Program for Public Consultation. Past surveys examined attitudes on abortion, international security, energy and the environment, and health care, among other issues.
Those interested can take the survey themselves here.
