STANFORD, California — Despite both world leaders slapping heavy tariffs on each other, President-elect Donald Trump and India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi have created a friendly relationship for the past 8 years, and that relationship is expected to continue in Trump’s 2nd term.
At a Sept. 23, 2019 rally in Houston, Texas — named “Howdy, Modi,” and attended by Trump — the two shook hands, as the prime minister declared “Abki baar, Trump Sarkar,” which translates to, “This time, a Trump government.” The President-elect enjoys immense support among Indians in India: Hindu priests in several parts of the country led several days of prayer services for a Trump victory.
Residents of Vadluru, Andhra Pradesh, also held victory celebrations for Usha Chilukuri Vance, Vice President JD Vance’s wife, whose family hails from that village.
Human Rights Violations
In a post-election interview with EMS, Dr. Sumit Ganguly, Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institute at Stanford University, said Trump’s popularity in India could be attributed to frustration with the left wing of the Democratic Party, which has criticized human rights violations and abuses in India.
“Indians are delighted that here’s a president who is going to maintain a deafening silence on the whole issue of human rights, democracy, free speech, and the like. He doesn’t believe in those things at home. Why would he care about this in India?”
“And so, from the standpoint of India, they stand to get a free ride on issues that might have otherwise concerned a Kamala Harris administration,” said Ganguly.
He noted there were several areas for cooperation but also possible rifts between the two countries. One major area of concern would be continuing tariffs.
Tariff King
“Trump has referred to India as the ‘tariff king.’ And it is true that India does have still fairly high tariffs, despite the process of liberalization that started in 1991. Since then, India has dramatically reduced tariffs, but by global standards, they are still fairly high.”
“Trump was upset about tariffs on certain American goods and consequently, he imposed a set of tariffs and India retaliated. My suspicion is that Trump will continue in that vein because he genuinely believes, despite the evidence of most economists, that somehow or other this will change the trade imbalance and will be beneficial to the United States,” said Ganguly, author of “More Than Words: U.S.-India Strategic Cooperation Into the Twenty-First Century.”
Most competent economists believe that these tariffs will ultimately be borne by the American consumer. “Far from being beneficial to the United States, it’s actually going to be quite costly,” he added.
Trade Imbalance
The US is India’s largest trading partner and its most important export market. US goods and services trade with India totaled an estimated $191.8 billion in 2022. Exports were $73.0 billion; imports were $118.8 billion, according to data from the office of the US Trade Representative. President Joe Biden and Modi came to a lopsided agreement on some tariffs during a June 22, 2023 meeting at the White House. India agreed to remove retaliatory tariffs on chickpeas, lentils, almonds, walnuts, apples, boric acid, and diagnostic reagents. But the US did not cut its tariffs on steel and aluminum.
The US is attempting to ease its dependence on cheap goods made in China — a touchstone of Trump’s Presidential campaign. But India would be unlikely to fill that void, said Ganguly. “India is still a very high-cost economy, and despite a significant easing of the costs of doing business, infrastructural costs in India remain much too high.”
The bulk of US investments have gone to Bangladesh, Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines and elsewhere in Southeast Asia, which have more competitive economies, he noted.
Iran-India Relationship Threatens US
India’s friendly relationship with Iran — and its previous dependence on the country for its oil supplies — could pose a rift in the US-India relationship.
“Trump doesn’t care much about India’s dependence on Russia for oil and fertilizers and weaponry. He has a very different view than Biden and others about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. And he thinks he can magically resolve it. So I don’t think he’s going to be overly worked up about India’s relationship with Russia. But the Iranian relationship could very easily become a problem for India,” said Ganguly.
Trump and Climate Change
India used to be one of the largest consumers of Iranian oil, but has not bought from the country since 2019, depending instead on supplies from Russia. Ganguly noted that Trump is likely to ask India to continue its ban on Iranian oil, and instead ramp up its purchase of liquified natural gas (LNG) — a fossil fuel, with damaging environmental impacts — from the US. The US is the second largest supplier of LNG to India.
“Trump does not believe in climate change and all he cares about is the petroleum and hydrocarbon industry in this country, which has been quite supportive of him and his policies, and revenues coming to the United States. And if this means selling more LNG to India, why not?”
The Global Stage
The two countries’ relationship is unlikely to be combative on the global stage, said Ganguly. Modi’s comfortable relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could prove useful to the US. “Modi only pays lip service to the Palestinian cause. He has not shown any great empathy for the plight of the Palestinians. So in that context, Trump is likely to find Modi to be a useful partner.”
“On Ukraine, to the extent that Trump believes that he can somehow produce a settlement, he’s not going to chastise Modi on the issue of purchases of Russian oil, weaponry and fertilizer.”
“On Taiwan, India’s ability and willingness to help the US is rather limited, largely because it’s concerned about Chinese deployments on the Himalayan border. And furthermore, India lacks naval capabilities that have that kind of reach into the Taiwan Straits,” said Ganguly.
“Apart from these irritants, both bilateral and beyond, my suspicion is that the relationship will continue to proceed apace. It may in fact might even gather more momentum under Trump because of his lack of concern about certain domestic developments in India, which would have vexed a Harris administration and would have brought the two countries into conflict,” he summated.
Shashi Tharoor
On the sidelines of the South Asian Arts and Literature festival here Sept. 29, Indian Member of Parliament Dr. Shashi Tharoor took a slightly different stance. In an interview with Ethnic Media Services, Tharoor forecasted that the two countries’ relationship was unlikely to change — regardless of who serves in the White House — because there are many drivers pushing forward a cordial relationship.
“For the US, India is seen in many ways as an indispensable alternative to China. Somebody would say counterweight, though India is very leery of an expression like that.”
“We don’t want to be a counterweight to somebody else’s purposes, but we have our own challenges with China. Therefore we can make common cause with the US on many aspects of that particular situation,” said Tharoor, formerly Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations, who unsuccessfully ran for the post of Secretary-General in 2006.
Indian Diaspora
The 4 million strong Indian American diaspora are also anxious to keep a cordial relationship between both countries, said Tharoor. He noted that five American Presidents, three Democrats, and two Republicans, have managed to keep the US-India partnership strong.
“There’s always going to be thrusts on both sides keeping the partnership going. We may be exaggerating the importance of individual chemistry, but in democracies, the leader moves on, and the national interest will continue. That’s ultimately what matters,” stated Tharoor, who was interviewed by Ganguly onstage at the close of SALA.
