With just five weeks to go before the Presidential election Nov. 5, two surveys released this week revealed that a majority of Latino and AAPI registered voters will cast their ballots for Vice President Kamala Harris.
Harris’ lead is razor-thin. In a national poll of voters of all backgrounds, released Sept. 25 by 270toWin, the Vice President tops Republican Presidential contender Donald Trump by 2.9%. Trump, however, holds a slim lead in 4 of the 7 key battleground states.
More than 36 million Latinos are eligible to vote this fall. They are now the nation’s second-largest group of eligible voters, and key to election outcomes in battleground states. A survey released by the Pew Research Center Sept. 24 indicates 57% of Latinos are voting for or leaning towards Harris. 39% will vote or are leaning towards . This is markedly different from a poll taken in July when President Joe Biden was the likely Democratic nominee. Equal shares of Latino voters said they would vote for Biden as for Trump (36% each) while 24% favored Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has since dropped out of the race.
Critical Issues
In a two-way match-up, 51% of Latino voters said in July that they would support Biden, while 46% said they would back Trump – a much narrower margin.
For Trump’s Latino supporters, the economy, violent crime, and immigration were three of the most-cited issues important to their vote. Latino Harris supporters said the economy, health care, and gun policy are their top three issues. Notably, only 51% cited immigration as a top concern. 62% of Latino voters believe Harris can be effective on abortion policy. Harris edged out Trump just slightly on foreign policy and economic policy among Latino voters.
The AAPI Vote
APIAVote also released a survey Sept. 24, updating an earlier poll released in May when Biden was still the presumptive Democratic nominee.
66% of Asian American voters plan on voting for Harris, while 28% say they back Trump. 6% say they are undecided, or will vote for another candidate. Earlier this year, 46% of Asian American voters backed Biden and 31% supported Trump, while 23% said they planned to vote for someone else or were undecided.
More than 15 million AANHPIs are eligible to vote, noted APIAVote President Christine Chen at a Sept. 6 Ethnic Media Services news briefing. 1.75 million live in key battleground states and could constitute the margin of victory. 77% of AAPI voters surveyed said they are “absolutely certain” they will vote in this election. 1 in 4 AAPIs will vote for the first time. Interestingly, more foreign-born voters — 80% — say they are absolutely certain they will vote, compared to 72% of those born in the US.
Election Fears
62% of Asian American voters say they have a favorable opinion of Kamala Harris, while 56% also support her vice presidential running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz. Harris has received a bump up from last spring, when just 44% of AAPI voters had a favorable view of her.
28% of AAPI voters have a favorable opinion of Donald Trump. 21% hold a favorable view of his running mate, Ohio Senator JD Vance.
AAPIs have a lot of fear about the 2024 election. 50% are concerned about false information surrounding the candidates. 47% fear post-election violence, while 41% predict there will be legal challenges. Also of concern was violence at the polling site.
